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Water Tera MageTier 2
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1141
· median 1141
· range 1087–1195
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1253
Q3 1348
1499
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
